Stabilize Foreign Trade And Create "Dual Engines" To Promote Economic Development

At present, it is necessary to continue upgrading and upgrading the "old engine", and play its role of large scale, strong comparative advantage, and the birth of new technologies. We must also strive to create "new engine" and guide the future development direction. In particular, we must grasp the practical needs of export enterprises, intensify efforts in decentralization, optimize the environment and improve services, and establish long-term mechanisms to optimize product and market structure, transform from single export products to products, services and technology, and transform from "big to big" to "superior, superior and superior".

From the point of subdivision data, China's exports to major export countries and regions declined in March, and exports to the United States, the European Union, ASEAN, Japan and China in Hongkong decreased by 8%, 19.1%, 9.3%, 24.8% and 18.3% respectively. The detailed data of export commodities were also sluggish, and the exports of agricultural products, electromechanical products and high and new technology products decreased by 18.1%, 8.4% and 4.7% respectively. From the perspective of trade, general trade, processing trade and processing trade also declined, with a decrease of 6%, 4% and 7.2% respectively. The foreign trade situation is more severe than expected.

Taking into account the monthly fluctuations caused by the Spring Festival factor, observing the overall quarterly data may be more helpful in judging the current situation. In the first quarter, China's import and export value was 904 billion 166 million US dollars, down 6.3%. Imports declined by 17.6%, exports increased by 4.7%, and export growth was lower than 8.6% in the fourth quarter of last year, but significantly higher than -3.4% in the same period last year.

In the first quarter of the year, the data seemed to be more optimistic than March alone, but the trend of export slowdown still deserves high attention. In March, the official manufacturing PMI's new orders and export orders index dropped 0.2 percentage points. The leading export index for the next 2 to 3 months is down 1.4 again in March, indicating that China's exports remain uncertain in the two quarter.

At present, the world Economics Growth is still weak, with the exception of the US economy. Japanese economy Weak performance and slower growth in emerging market economies have not yet improved our demand for foreign markets compared to last year. The problem of high cost pressures remains unsolved. Under the pressure of the domestic economic downturn, it is difficult for the import sector to recover in the short term. Although relevant departments have stepped up action this year to boost growth, the policy effect will take some time to emerge. On the whole, under the pressure of internal and external, this year's foreign trade will achieve 6% of the growth target will be very difficult.

It is worth noting that there are also structural highlights in the first quarter data: exports of seven types of labor intensive products such as textiles and clothing increased by 6.1%, and the export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 6.4%, which is better than the total export. The growth rate of high-end manufacturing products such as transportation tools, mobile phones and metal processing machine tools is all above 20%. This shows that in the trend of slowing growth of foreign trade, new kinetic energy is beginning to appear.

On the one hand, the new kinetic energy comes from the transformation of the old engine: labor intensive. Improvement trade Such as the upgrading of traditional growth kinetic energy, on the other hand, from the creation of the "new engine": at present, independent intellectual property rights, new and high technology and high-end manufacturing products emerge in endlessly; new trade formats such as cross-border e-commerce, market purchasing trade and financing lease are developing vigorously; and the strategy of "one belt one way" and free trade zone will also open up a new pattern of opening up to the outside world.

At present, the proportion of new energy driven exports is relatively low, and it is difficult to support the rapid growth of foreign trade. However, these are not only favorable factors to promote China's foreign trade growth this year, but also a long-term motive force to promote growth through structural upgrading. Under the new normal, the growth of foreign trade has entered the transition period: gradually farewell to the single extensive mode of relying on cost advantage in the past, and become a mixed force of new and old engines, and the "double engine" mode has emerged.