Long Year A Shares Run Guess &Nbsp; 6 Plate Or Sought After Target
A share market: Farewell to unilateral decline
The law of history shows that when the economic cycle has entered the stage of high inflation, money has begun to shrink, and then it has caused economic decline in turn.
inflation
At this stage, the stock market is the process of first valuing and falling earnings expectations. On the contrary, when the economic cycle has entered the low inflation stage, monetary policy will start to relax, which will cause economic recovery and inflation to rise in turn. This stage is the process of bottoming out for the stock market and the bottom up rebound after earnings growth.
Of course, the decline in valuation and profit declines depend on the degree of monetary contraction and economic decline; the rebound in valuation and the expected rebound in earnings also depend on the rise in the currency and the recovery rate of the economy.
Therefore, the stock market is like a companion of the economic cycle, and the cycle fluctuates with the economic cycle.
From a small cycle perspective, 2011 was a stagflation period, and the stock market fell first and then fell.
Similar cases are 2004-2005 years and 2008.
In the high inflation stage, liquidity will shrink and lead to economic growth.
Fall back
。
We have calculated the returns from different years since the establishment of China's stock market and the stages of the current economic cycle. We find that the worst year is stagflation.
Even at low growth, low inflation or economic stagnation, the stock market returns are higher than stagflation.
According to the foregoing analysis, the economic cycle will go from stagflation stage to low inflation and low growth stage next year. The trend of economic growth will be slightly lower before the beginning of the year, and the liquidity will be better than this year.
End
。
The index run trajectory hypothesis:
The Shanghai stock index in 2012 may be a low and high position.
The first quarter of the market or a weak rebound; the two quarter will still be weak; and in the three quarter, with the eighteen convening of the Communist Party of China, there will be a strong rebound in the market.
The 2 wave in the Shanghai stock exchange line has been basically adjusted since the adjustment of 1664. (the theoretical adjustment target is near 2080).
Whether the market will continue to extend the adjustment time or start a new surge, the downward trend in the short term has ended and the market has begun to turn back again.
The nature of the current rally should belong to the weekly level, which may be ABC or 5.
Wave form
After the upswing, the depth of the callback will determine the strength of the market.
Several key resistance levels are: 2334, 2535, 2659, 2784, 2937.
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Hot plate conjecture:
Biomass power generation
China has become a country in 2010.
Global
In the case of the first big energy consuming country, under the circumstances that the economy continues to maintain an appropriate growth rate, the current energy dilemma needs to be cracked. In the future, the national energy strategy will be adjusted to give priority to the development of renewable energy.
Among them, biomass energy has become the most promising energy source in renewable energy because of its diversity, easy availability, large annual output, low utilization cost, and no major obstacles in technology.
The development target of biomass energy in 12th Five-Year is that biomass power generation installed in 2015 reached 13 million kilowatts, and reached 30 million kilowatts in 2020, compared with 2010 kilowatts of biomass installed at the end of 2010, with a compound annual growth rate of about 18.77%.
In addition to the 13 million kilowatts of biomass power installed by 2015, there will also be 3 million central gas supply, 20 million tons of annual fuel utilization, 3 million tons of bio fuel ethanol and 1 million 500 thousand tons of biodiesel annually.
Experts predict that by 2015, all kinds of biomass consumption will exceed at least 40 million tons of standard coal.
It is precisely to see the great potential of biomass energy development. In recent years, local governments such as Hubei and Shandong, as well as Katie electric power, COFCO biochemical and other listed companies, have concentrated on superior resources and increased investment in biomass energy industry.
Two, tourism
China's tourism development plan for 12th Five-Year was officially released.
Planning for the total volume of development for the next five years to make the deployment.
It is estimated that by 2015, the total tourism revenue will reach 2 trillion and 500 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 10%. The number of domestic tourists will reach 3 billion 300 million, with an average annual growth rate of 10%, and the number of inbound tourists will reach 150 million, with an average annual growth rate of 3%.
Tourism foreign exchange earnings will reach 58 billion US dollars, the average annual growth rate is 5%, outbound tourism will reach 88 million passengers, the average annual growth rate is 9%, the number of new employment in tourism will reach 16 million 500 thousand, and 600 thousand new people will be added to tourism every year.
The added value of tourism will account for 4.5% of the total GDP in the country, 12% of the added value of the service sector, and 10% of the total tourism consumption.
The large-scale development of China's tourism industry started in the middle and late 90s. Especially after 2002, the improvement of pportation, accommodation facilities and other infrastructure facilities provided a necessary condition for the development of tourism industrialization. After more than 10 years of development, the industry entered a fast rising channel.
From the rule of mature market to infer the future development of China's tourism industry, we think that the plan for 12th Five-Year is
Promulgation
To ensure that the industry will continue its early track in the general keynote of steady economic growth in 2012, economic growth and declining household income growth will have limited impact on the industry.
The demand for consumption will be very clear under the framework of restructuring, and the demand for the upgrading of the tourism industry is more urgent. The economic function of the industry to increase domestic demand will be particularly significant.
Three, military industry
The rise of China will inevitably require our country to strengthen national defense construction.
In 2010, China's gross domestic product (GDP) reached 39 trillion yuan (US $5 trillion and 900 billion) of China's gross domestic product (GDP) last year, equivalent to 8.5% of the world's GDP, and surpassed Japan's second largest economy in the world.
However, China's defense strength obviously lagged behind the political strength and economic strength. Compared with the major powers in the world, the proportion of defense expenditure in GDP is obviously low, and it is not compatible with the status of great powers. From the defense expenditure index of GDP, the world average in 2009 is 2.7%, China is only 1.4%, while the United States is 4.3%, which is 3 times the same period in China.
national defense
Construction is imperative.
In the next ten years, China's defense expenditure will maintain a high growth rate, and the proportion of arms procurement will further expand.
Since 2000, China's defense expenditure has maintained a relatively fast growth rate of around 15%.
According to our prediction, the average annual growth rate of defense expenditure in China will remain at around 16% in the next ten years.
With the acceleration of China's new military revolution, the proportion of equipment procurement costs in defense spending will gradually increase. According to the estimated cost of military equipment procurement, which is 40% of defense expenditure, by 2015, the cost of military equipment procurement will be about 500 billion.
Because the investment in military industry is greatly influenced by international changes, the trend of military industry stocks is more sensitive to international events involving national security and sovereignty. In 2012, the unstable factors in China's periphery were more than that in 2011. Therefore, the international situation has a greater probability of threatening events such as China's security and sovereignty, and the stimulation factors for the rise of military stocks may increase.
Four, wine making
The boom of the liquor making industry continued to rise in 2011, 1-11 months.
Make wine
The industry has shown a rapid growth trend, the output of alcoholic products has increased significantly, and the demand for downstream consumption has been booming.
Affected by the sustained growth of residents' income and fiscal revenue, the pace of liquor consumption upgrading has further accelerated, and the product sales structure of the liquor making industry has begun to change. The consumption of medium and high end alcoholic products is much higher than that of low-end products.
The growth of business revenue has remained stable since 10 years and the profit growth rate is higher than expected. It is expected that this situation will be sustainable during the Spring Festival sales season.
We think that the trend of high boom in liquor making industry can continue in 2012.
In 2011, the performance of medium and high grade liquor maintained rapid growth, and the overall prosperity of the liquor industry was high, showing a trend of volume and price rising.
In the 1-11 month, the output of liquor increased by 30.20%. We believe that the growth rate of liquor production is mainly contributed by low grade liquor.
Although high-grade liquor has strong pricing power, but the capacity expansion is slower, and the price of high-end liquor has set aside enough room for growth of medium and low grade liquor, and the overall consumption level of liquor has been shifting upward.
The consumption structure of Chinese liquor gradually changed from spindle shape to Pyramid structure.
In the mid-range wine brand, the regional brand expansion is most rapid. For example, Gujing Gong liquor and the Yanghe River stock company have shown a rapid growth this year, and the provincial and provincial markets have expanded rapidly.
The rapid rise of high-end liquor prices and the expansion of mid - end liquor are the main points of this year's liquor industry.
In the medium and long term, we are more interested in high-end liquor enterprises with pricing power and liquor enterprises with regional characteristics and national expansion.
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Five, restructuring
State owned assets supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council recently held central enterprises
Be responsible for
At the meeting, it was revealed that in 2012, the SASAC would classify and guide the shareholding system reform of the company system, and continue to push qualified central enterprises to accelerate the overall listing of their main businesses, and explore the joint reorganization and listing of the similar business segments between the central enterprises and the central enterprises.
Promote the optimization and integration of listed companies of central enterprises.
According to incomplete statistics, since the establishment of the SASAC in 2003, 67 central enterprises have been reorganized by other central enterprises. One of the most common ways is that a central enterprise is merged into a wholly owned subsidiary by another larger central enterprise, and the proportion of the central enterprises in the scientific research institutes is relatively small because of the relatively high proportion of other central enterprises incorporated, accounting for about 14, accounting for about 20%.
Among the 129 central enterprises, a total of 86 (including its holding subsidiaries) are listed on the A shares, and 152 listed companies are controlled. The total market capitalization accounts for about 35% of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in China.
Among them, 23 central enterprises have been listed in A shares or have been listed as a whole. Most of these central enterprises have a large scale, including 10 world top 500 enterprises.
Petrochemical, steel, aviation and construction enterprises are mostly listed on the whole or most of the assets are listed.
There are 36 large and medium-sized central enterprises listed on the part of listed assets or holding shares, and the number of listed A shares controlled by them is 80.
Through reviewing the reorganization and integration of the central enterprises over the past years, we believe that the central enterprises that meet the four conditions of "industry concentration degree, enterprise scale, profit margin and policy intensity" have great probability of reorganization and integration in recent years. Combined with the judgement of the direction of the future integration of central enterprises, we believe that the central enterprises group that is benefited from the strategic adjustment of state-owned capital and the layout of the relevant central enterprises in the industrial chain should be concerned about the central enterprises group in the pillar industries such as military industry, machinery, medicine, electronics, chemical industry, real estate, building materials and so on, and the listed companies as related business platforms will be given stronger integration expectations.
Six, medical services
Medical care
Market demand has been strong this year.
Endogenetic driving forces such as sustained population growth, accelerated social aging process and rising consumption level are driving the sustained growth of China's pharmaceutical market.
With the continuous increase of government investment and the improvement of the medical security system, the long standing medical needs will be continuously released.
At present, the medical needs of residents in China have entered a period of rapid release.
With the sustained and rapid release of medical demand, China's hospital industry will continue to develop rapidly.
Private hospitals will enter the golden period of development.
In recent years, private hospitals have been developing rapidly and become an important source of medical resources growth.
In December 2010, the opinions on Further Encouraging and guiding social capital to organize medical institutions have brought new opportunities for the development of private hospitals.
The opinions put forward clear measures in the aspects of access, practice and supervision of non-public medical institutions, which help to change the difficulties faced by private hospitals and promote the healthy and rapid development of private hospitals.
With the gradual progress of the reform of public hospitals, the "opinion" and its follow-up policies have been introduced one after another, and private hospitals are expected to usher in the golden age of development.
Specialist areas suitable for private hospitals
Development
。
From the policy point of view, diversified hospitals will still be dominated by public hospitals, and the government will encourage private hospitals to compete with public hospitals to make up for the insufficient supply of medical resources.
At the same time, compared with public hospitals, private hospitals are still weak in terms of talent reserves, technical level, public trust and so on. In the short term, they do not have the conditions to compete directly with public hospitals.
Therefore, we believe that private hospitals will have more room for development in areas where public hospitals are less covered.
We believe that the specialized field is suitable for the development of private hospitals.
In the specialized field, high-quality private hospitals can make deep, meticulous and meticulous marketing according to their own advantages, and develop chain hospital groups outside the region, expand the scale, establish brand, and achieve sustained and rapid development.
In all kinds of specialized hospitals, we believe that the profit rate of beauty, otolaryngology, ophthalmology, stomatology and other fields is relatively high, which is suitable for the development of private hospitals.
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